Employment levels will rise, ultimately returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, according to a new 3-year economic forecast released by the University of Nebraska Bureau of Business Research and the Nebraska Business Forecast Council.
According to the forecast, Nebraska employment dropped by 3.7% in 2020 compared to 2019 and is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022. Employment growth should then “normalize” to a 0.9% rate in 2023, which is the average rate of job growth in the pre-pandemic period from 2010 to 2019.
The outlook is also positive for Nebraska agriculture. Farm income is thought to have risen by 37% in 2020, according to the forecast, and much of that increase will be sustained in the next three years. Farm income will benefit from recent increases in crop commodity prices, as well as ongoing transfer payments. However, the contribution of transfer payments to farm income will fade in 2022 and 2023.
Nonfarm income growth will be solid in Nebraska, although impacted by stimulus checks, federal unemployment benefits and other transfer payments. Non-farm personal income is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2021 but by just 0.6% in 2022 as stimulus ends. Nonfarm income growth is also expected to normalize in 2023, to 3.2%.
The complete report is available at this link April 2021 BIN 041621